{
  "schema": "aic.cash-bridges/1",
  "dataset_id": "meta-september-oracle-august-2026",
  "reviewed_on": "2026-10-25",
  "language": "en",
  "unit": "USD millions",
  "scope": "Two consolidated-company cash-flow statements with different quarter ends. Not an AI-only allocation, synchronized sector total, or tracing of particular dollars to capex.",
  "sign_convention": "Cash inflows positive and outflows negative. Sources-and-uses displays use positive magnitudes, net marketable-security flows, and a balancing change in cash. FX is a reconciliation item, not financing.",
  "sources": [
    {"id":"META_Q3_RELEASE","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026066700/meta-09302026xexhibit991.htm","published_on":"2026-10-21","locator":"Exhibit 99.1, three-month cash-flow columns and FCF reconciliation; direct quarter figures rather than a subtraction of rounded year-to-date figures."},
    {"id":"META_Q3_10Q","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026066773/meta-20260930.htm","published_on":"2026-10-22","locator":"Cash reconciliation; Notes 4, 5, 9 and 10; capital resources and liquidity."},
    {"id":"META_CLASS_C_8K","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026066700/meta-20261019.htm","published_on":"2026-10-21","locator":"Item 1.01: board action October 19, shareholder consent October 20, expected charter effectiveness January 19, 2027, and proposed stock dividend."},
    {"id":"ORCL_Q1_RELEASE","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm","published_on":"2026-09-10","locator":"Three months ended August 31, 2026 cash-flow statement; FCF and net-capex-cash-outlay reconciliation."},
    {"id":"ORCL_Q1_10Q","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm","published_on":null,"locator":"Note 7 and recent financing activities: the $20bn ATM program was fully utilized in the quarter."},
    {"id":"JUNE_BASELINE","url":"https://aiinfracredit.com/downloads/hyperscaler-funding/cash-ledger.json","published_on":"2026-10-14","locator":"Four June-ending companies and their linked original earnings releases. The baseline remains dated, not a September update."}
  ],
  "companies": [
    {
      "id":"META","name":"Meta","source_id":"META_Q3_RELEASE",
      "period":{"start":"2026-07-01","end":"2026-09-30","label":"Quarter ended September 30, 2026"},
      "reported":{"operating_cash":32786,"cash_ppe":33942,"finance_lease_principal":964,"issuer_free_cash_flow":-2120,"investing_cash":-30978,"financing_cash":-6733,"fx":8,"cash_change":-4917,"opening_cash_including_restricted":29271,"closing_cash_including_restricted":24354},
      "operating_components":[
        {"label":"Net income","amount":9860},
        {"label":"Depreciation and amortization","amount":7154},
        {"label":"Share-based compensation","amount":7363},
        {"label":"Deferred income taxes","amount":2117},
        {"label":"Unrealized (gain) and loss on equity investments","amount":18},
        {"label":"Other","amount":-329},
        {"label":"Accounts receivable","amount":-999},
        {"label":"Prepaid expenses and other current assets","amount":-936},
        {"label":"Other assets","amount":-2437},
        {"label":"Accounts payable","amount":1596},
        {"label":"Accrued expenses and other current liabilities","amount":1940},
        {"label":"Other liabilities","amount":7439}
      ],
      "investing_components":[
        {"id":"cash_ppe","label":"Purchases of property and equipment","amount":-33942},
        {"id":"security_purchases","label":"Purchases of marketable securities","amount":-41875},
        {"id":"security_sales","label":"Sales and maturities of marketable securities","amount":44802},
        {"id":"private_investments","label":"Payments for non-marketable equity investments","amount":-874},
        {"id":"held_for_sale","label":"Payments for held-for-sale assets","amount":-938},
        {"id":"venture_distribution","label":"Proceeds from data center venture distribution","amount":1037},
        {"id":"acquisitions","label":"Acquisitions of businesses and intangible assets","amount":-111},
        {"id":"other_investing","label":"Other investing activities","amount":923}
      ],
      "financing_components":[
        {"id":"award_taxes","label":"Taxes paid related to net share settlement of equity awards","amount":-4064},
        {"id":"repurchases","label":"Repurchases of Class A common stock","amount":0},
        {"id":"dividends","label":"Payments for dividends and dividend equivalents","amount":-1361},
        {"id":"long_term_debt_proceeds","label":"Proceeds from issuance of long-term debt, net","amount":0},
        {"id":"lease_principal","label":"Principal payments on finance leases","amount":-964},
        {"id":"other_financing","label":"Other financing activities","amount":-344}
      ],
      "display_sources":[
        {"label":"Operating cash","amount":32786,"kind":"operating_cash"},
        {"label":"Net security sales and maturities","amount":2927,"kind":"asset_reallocation"},
        {"label":"Data-center venture distribution","amount":1037,"kind":"investing_receipt"},
        {"label":"Other investing plus FX","amount":931,"kind":"mixed_reconciliation","note":"Other investing 923 plus FX 8. FX is not funding."},
        {"label":"Cash balance used, including restricted","amount":4917,"kind":"balance_change"}
      ],
      "display_uses":[
        {"label":"Cash property and equipment","amount":33942},
        {"label":"Finance-lease principal","amount":964},
        {"label":"Equity-award settlement taxes","amount":4064},
        {"label":"Dividends","amount":1361},
        {"label":"Other cash uses","amount":2267,"note":"Non-marketable investments 874; held-for-sale assets 938; acquisitions 111; other financing 344."}
      ],
      "cash_scope":{"cash_and_equivalents":11222,"current_restricted_cash":597,"noncurrent_restricted_cash":12535,"marketable_securities_excluded_from_cfs_cash_total":71227,"cash_plus_marketable_securities":82449,"restricted_infrastructure_escrow_money_market_funds":10800,"escrow_release_window":"2028–2030 subject to obligations"},
      "context":{"long_term_debt_net_proceeds_ytd":24910,"debt_issuance_month":"2026-05","texas_venture_cash_distribution_rounded":1040,"texas_venture_contributed_net_assets_rounded":2260,"texas_venture_equity_percent":20,"texas_venture_total_estimated_development_cost":14000,"texas_lease_commencement_year":2028,"venture_cash_and_noncash_contribution_additive_as_cash":false},
      "class_c":{"board_approval_date":"2026-10-19","shareholder_consent_date":"2026-10-20","expected_charter_effective_date":"2027-01-19","mechanism":"One Class C share stock dividend per Class A or B share, subject to charter effectiveness. Future primary sales are a different event.","september_cash_proceeds":0,"future_capital_raise_amount":null},
      "limitations":["The zero is the reported long-term debt-proceeds line, not proof that every possible gross borrowing channel was zero.","The cash-flow balance includes restricted cash and is not an unrestricted cash pool.","Company-wide cash flows do not allocate each source to AI capex.","A reported operating-cash total is not a normalized recurring-earnings measure."]
    },
    {
      "id":"ORCL","name":"Oracle","source_id":"ORCL_Q1_RELEASE",
      "period":{"start":"2026-06-01","end":"2026-08-31","label":"Quarter ended August 31, 2026"},
      "reported":{"operating_cash":23103,"cash_ppe":28499,"finance_lease_principal":null,"issuer_free_cash_flow":-5396,"investing_cash":-28580,"financing_cash":13111,"fx":11,"cash_change":7645,"opening_cash_including_restricted":31289,"closing_cash_including_restricted":38934},
      "operating_components":[
        {"label":"Net income","amount":4760},
        {"label":"Depreciation","amount":3156},
        {"label":"Amortization of intangible assets","amount":202},
        {"label":"Deferred income taxes","amount":-73},
        {"label":"Stock-based compensation","amount":1127},
        {"label":"Other, net","amount":-4},
        {"label":"Increase in trade receivables, net","amount":-1009},
        {"label":"Decrease in prepaid expenses and other assets","amount":114},
        {"label":"Decrease in accounts payable and other liabilities","amount":-1076},
        {"label":"Increase (decrease) in income taxes payable","amount":546},
        {"id":"selected_customer_prepayment_adjustment","label":"Increase in deferred revenues from customer prepayments with significant financing component","amount":11363},
        {"label":"Increase in other deferred revenues","amount":3997}
      ],
      "investing_components":[
        {"id":"security_purchases","label":"Purchases of marketable securities and other investments","amount":-306},
        {"id":"security_sales","label":"Proceeds from sales and maturities of marketable securities and other investments","amount":225},
        {"id":"cash_ppe","label":"Capital expenditures","amount":-28499}
      ],
      "financing_components":[
        {"id":"atm_equity","label":"Proceeds from issuances of common stock via at-the-market program, net of issuance costs","amount":19909},
        {"id":"employee_equity","label":"Net proceeds from employee stock programs","amount":41},
        {"id":"dividends","label":"Payments of dividends to stockholders","amount":-1565},
        {"id":"commercial_paper","label":"Repayments of commercial paper, net","amount":0},
        {"id":"capex_financing","label":"(Repayments of) proceeds from short-term financing related to capital expenditures, net","amount":-830},
        {"id":"borrowing_repayments","label":"Repayments of senior notes, term loan credit agreements and other borrowings","amount":-4202},
        {"id":"other_financing","label":"Other financing activities, net","amount":-242}
      ],
      "display_sources":[
        {"label":"Operating cash, including selected prepayment line","amount":23103,"kind":"operating_cash"},
        {"label":"ATM equity net proceeds","amount":19909,"kind":"equity"},
        {"label":"Employee equity proceeds plus FX","amount":52,"kind":"mixed_reconciliation","note":"Employee stock programs 41 plus FX 11. FX is not funding."}
      ],
      "display_uses":[
        {"label":"Cash capital expenditures","amount":28499},
        {"label":"Borrowing and capex-financing repayments","amount":5032,"note":"4202 borrowing repayments plus 830 net capex-financing repayments; not relabeled as finance-lease principal."},
        {"label":"Dividends","amount":1565},
        {"label":"Other cash uses","amount":323,"note":"Net investment purchases 81 plus other financing 242."},
        {"label":"Cash balance increase, including restricted","amount":7645}
      ],
      "cash_scope":{"cash_and_equivalents":36369,"restricted_cash_derived":2565},
      "selected_prepayment":{"amount":11363,"included_in_operating_cash":true,"is_additional_source_above_cfo":false,"is_all_customer_prepayment_gross_receipts":false,"cfo_less_selected_adjustment":11740,"arithmetic_subtotal_is_normalized_cash_flow":false},
      "atm_program":{"cap":20000,"fully_utilized_by":"2026-08-31","same_program_unused_capacity":0,"source_id":"ORCL_Q1_10Q"},
      "limitations":["August and September quarter ends are not combined as one synchronized period.","Finance-lease principal is not separately established in the reviewed Oracle rows; null is not zero.","The selected prepayment adjustment is already inside operating cash and is not added again.","Cash proceeds from equity are actual historical funding, not undrawn capacity remaining in the fully used program."]
    }
  ],
  "prediction_checkpoint": {
    "as_of":"2026-10-25",
    "p1":{"url":"https://x.com/EliasSWells/status/2114238950156247462","posted_at_utc_supplied_by_comms":"2026-10-25T06:13:41Z","visible_post_time_pacific":"2026-10-24 23:13","body_verified_in_browser":true,"edit_history_independently_verified":false,"status":"unresolved","original_subjective_confidence":0.60,"stated_wrong_if":"combined gap is zero or higher","operational_definition":"Sum of quarterly reported operating cash flow less cash purchases of PP&E for Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Finance-lease principal is excluded from this particular common subtotal.","definition_note":"The exact line-item definition was not spelled out in the original post; it is clarified here consistently with the published June baseline, before the other three September-quarter results.","is_statement_about_bond_issuance":false},
    "june_baseline":[{"id":"MSFT","cfo":55441,"cash_ppe":35802},{"id":"GOOGL","cfo":39069,"cash_ppe":44924},{"id":"AMZN","cfo":45387,"cash_ppe":54208},{"id":"META","cfo":31862,"cash_ppe":30116}],
    "september_observed_gaps":{"MSFT":null,"GOOGL":null,"AMZN":null,"META":-1156},
    "derived":{"june_combined_gap":6709,"june_gap_excluding_meta":4963,"other_three_combined_gap_below_for_p1_true":1156,"carry_forward_other_three_june_gaps_plus_meta_september":3807},
    "p2":{"full_two_company_prediction_published":false,"full_two_company_prediction_scored":false,"published_alphabet_reply":"https://x.com/EliasSWells/status/2114434069165637866","visible_post_time_pacific":"2026-10-25 12:09","body_verified_in_browser":true,"classification":"Directional expectation that Alphabet's gap would turn positive, expressed in a reply. No published Amazon leg or stated confidence is added here."}
  }
}