{
  "model": "aic.early-lender-pricing/1",
  "date": "2026-10-06",
  "evidence_class": "hypothetical",
  "purpose": "Test whether nonnegative upfront fees can meet borrower, lender and protection-provider pricing constraints for earlier funding.",
  "valuation": {
    "unit": "USD cents",
    "clock": "All economic amounts are already converted to one common upfront present-value basis; the program does not discount dated cash flows.",
    "state_weights": "Illustrative shared probabilities for a 20-day earlier-funding execution window, not annual default rates or estimated company probabilities. riskWindowDays labels the period being priced; changing it requires new probability and cost inputs, not automatic annualization or rescaling.",
    "borrower_budget": "An assumed complete incremental reservation price of $210,000, including its own state-dependent consequences, additional obligations and timing costs. This is not the earlier model's $210,410.96 survival-case horizon cash ceiling.",
    "carry": "An independently assumed $100,000 present-value credit for incremental scheduled interest less funding cost. Credit losses must include forgone interest relative to that schedule where applicable. Do not deduct funding cost twice.",
    "loss": "Incremental lender loss relative to the specified later-funding alternative, after ordinary recoveries but before the new protection. The $20m loss-state amount is already a present value, not the original loan principal or a quoted LGD.",
    "support": "The hypothetical first-loss support cap is $10m on that same present-value basis. Actual contractual face caps, recovery delays and subrogation rights require a dated valuation before using the screen.",
    "conditional_performance": "The assumed share/probability of protected value actually realized conditional on the given project-loss state. It is not an unconditional guarantor survival probability; correlation is not assumed away.",
    "capital_and_liquidity": "Dollar economic charges above expected loss, including any required compensation for unexpected risk, capital and liquidity. They are explicit assumptions, not regulatory calculations, and do not automatically fall when protection is added.",
    "fees": "Separate nonnegative fees paid upfront. No refund, rebate, tax, later provider recovery or commercial cross-subsidy is modeled.",
    "eligibility": "Pricing overlap is a necessary screen only. Enforceability and support-provider claim-paying liquidity must be separately supplied; unknown or failed relevant states prevent a completed pricing verdict. No actual collateral or cash is inferred from a fee."
  },
  "source_context": [
    {
      "title": "CoreWeave Parent Guarantee and Pledge Agreement",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000357/ex102parentguarantee.htm",
      "executed_date": "2026-08-07",
      "filed_date": "2026-08-10",
      "checked_date": "2026-10-06",
      "locator": "Section 2.1(a), (b), (g); Article III",
      "fact": "The parent is described as a primary obligor for payment and performance, with a liability limitation in 2.1(b). Paragraph (g) distinguishes payment/performance from collection. Article III identifies the Pledgor's security interest separately.",
      "scope": "A documentary example of distinct promise, liability limit and security. It does not supply this experiment's capped protection design, probability, fee, recoveries, capital charges or demonstrated current claim-paying capacity."
    },
    {
      "title": "CoreWeave filing detail for the August 7 agreements",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000357/0001769628-26-000357-index.html",
      "fact": "The filing date is August 10, 2026; the report period is August 7, 2026. Exhibit 10.2 is the parent guarantee."
    }
  ],
  "not_inferred": [
    "Observed market prices or probabilities",
    "A complete CoreWeave or IREN loan reconstruction",
    "Current solvency or credit rating of any company",
    "Automatic bank regulatory-capital recognition",
    "Legal enforceability in a particular dispute",
    "A transaction executable solely because its pricing tests overlap",
    "A dollar-for-dollar social resource saving from reduced financing charges"
  ],
  "files": ["early-lender-pricing.mjs", "early-lender-results.json", "verify-early-lender-pricing.mjs", "early-lender-assumptions.json"]
}