{ "schema": "aic.research-horizon/1", "researchDate": "2026-10-04", "issuerCalibrated": false, "rates": "A 4% common time-value benchmark, not an estimated cost of risky AI equity. Baseline reserve yield also 4%; one scenario separately changes that yield.", "scenarios": [ { "id": "unconditional_prefunding", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "unconditional", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 86923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.07692307692307689, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.2, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": -20248350.022758335, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": -20248350.02275832, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": false, "continueProbability": 1, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.25, "successTypeRetention": 1, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0, "expectedReviewSpending": 80000000, "expectedTerminalCash": 75000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 90000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 60000000.00000001 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "staged_prefunding_no_fee", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 86923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.2, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 16416704.59717796, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 16416704.59717796, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.35000000000000003, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.2, "successTypeRetention": 0.8, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.04999999999999999, "expectedReviewSpending": 28000000, "expectedTerminalCash": 60000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 52000000.00000001, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 38000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 12000000.000000002 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "staged_prefunding_fee4m", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 4000000, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 90923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.2, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 175775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -90923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -14000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -14000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 12416704.597177958, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 12416704.59717796, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.35000000000000003, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.2, "successTypeRetention": 0.8, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.04999999999999999, "expectedReviewSpending": 28000000, "expectedTerminalCash": 60000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 52000000.00000001, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 42000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 12000000.000000002 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "later_raise70", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "later_raise", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 0.7, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 0.7, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 0, "reserveDeposit": 0, "initialContribution": 10000000, "externalCallIfContinue": 80000000, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 0.7, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.13999999999999999, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 80000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.06000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.10500000000000001, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 80000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.04500000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 8491693.218024567, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 8491693.21802457, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.245, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.13999999999999999, "successTypeRetention": 0.5599999999999999, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.11000000000000001, "expectedReviewSpending": 19600000, "expectedTerminalCash": 41999999.99999999, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 19600000, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 29600000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 8400000 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "committed_call95_fee2m", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "committed_call", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 0.95, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 0.95, "arrangementFee": 2000000, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 0, "reserveDeposit": 0, "initialContribution": 12000000, "externalCallIfContinue": 80000000, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 0.95, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.19, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 12000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 80000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 177775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.010000000000000009, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 12000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -12000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.14250000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 12000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 80000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -88923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.0075000000000000075, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 12000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -12000000 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 12000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -12000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 12000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -12000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 13095869.367319062, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 13095869.36731907, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.3325, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.19, "successTypeRetention": 0.76, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.06, "expectedReviewSpending": 26600000, "expectedTerminalCash": 57000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 26600000, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 38600000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 11400000.000000002 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "prefunding_yield1_fee4m", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.01, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 4000000, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 79207920.79207921, "initialContribution": 93207920.79207921, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 2284843.8690022826 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.2, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 93207920.79207921, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 173490986.80919522 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 93207920.79207921, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -93207920.79207921 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 93207920.79207921, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -16284843.869002283 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 93207920.79207921, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -16284843.869002283 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 10131860.72817568, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 12416704.59717796, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.35000000000000003, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.2, "successTypeRetention": 0.8, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.04999999999999999, "expectedReviewSpending": 28000000, "expectedTerminalCash": 60000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 52000000.00000001, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 42000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 12000000.000000002 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "quality_linked_funding", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "later_raise", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 0.55, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 0, "reserveDeposit": 0, "initialContribution": 10000000, "externalCallIfContinue": 80000000, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 0.7428571428571428, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.42307692307692313, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.11000000000000001, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 80000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.09, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 80000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": -663120.1638598135, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": -663120.1638598107, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": false, "continueProbability": 0.26, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.11000000000000001, "successTypeRetention": 0.44000000000000006, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.13999999999999999, "expectedReviewSpending": 20800000.000000004, "expectedTerminalCash": 33000000.000000004, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 20800000.000000004, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 30800000.000000004, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 12000000.000000002 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "weaker_signal", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.6, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.4, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 86923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.45000000000000007, "goodMass": 0.15, "otherMass": 0.30000000000000004, "posteriorSuccess": 0.33333333333333326, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 12455621.301775128, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.33333333333333326, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.5499999999999999, "goodMass": 0.1, "otherMass": 0.44999999999999996, "posteriorSuccess": 0.18181818181818185, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -29569661.108122647, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.1, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": -4610548.47519346, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": -4610548.475193448, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": false, "continueProbability": 0.45000000000000007, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.15, "successTypeRetention": 0.6, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.1, "expectedReviewSpending": 36000000, "expectedTerminalCash": 45000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 44000000, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 46000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 24000000.000000004 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "uninformative_signal", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.5, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.5, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 86923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.5, "goodMass": 0.125, "otherMass": 0.375, "posteriorSuccess": 0.25, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -10658284.023668647, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.5, "goodMass": 0.125, "otherMass": 0.375, "posteriorSuccess": 0.25, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -10658284.023668647, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.125, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.375, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.125, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.375, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": -10000000, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": -10000000, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": false, "continueProbability": 0, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0, "successTypeRetention": 0, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.25, "expectedReviewSpending": 0, "expectedTerminalCash": 0, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 10000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 0 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "exit8_prefunding_fee4m", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 8000000, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 4000000, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 90923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": -8000000 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": -8000000 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.2, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 175775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -90923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 8000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 72000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -21692307.692307696 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 90923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 8000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 72000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -21692307.692307696 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 7416704.597177956, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 7416704.597177967, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.35000000000000003, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.2, "successTypeRetention": 0.8, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.04999999999999999, "expectedReviewSpending": 33200000, "expectedTerminalCash": 60000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 46800000.00000001, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 47200000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 12000000.000000002 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "exit8_later_raise70", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 8000000, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "later_raise", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 0.7, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 0.7, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 8000000, "reserveDeposit": 7692307.692307692, "initialContribution": 17692307.692307692, "externalCallIfContinue": 72000000, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": -8000000 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 0.7, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": -8000000 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.13999999999999999, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 17692307.692307692, "capitalCalledAtReview": 72000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.06000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 17692307.692307692, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 8000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -17692307.692307692 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.10500000000000001, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 17692307.692307692, "capitalCalledAtReview": 72000000, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.04500000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 17692307.692307692, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 8000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -17692307.692307692 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 17692307.692307692, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 8000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -17692307.692307692 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 17692307.692307692, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 8000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -17692307.692307692 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 2684000.9103322625, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 2684000.9103322625, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.245, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.13999999999999999, "successTypeRetention": 0.5599999999999999, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.11000000000000001, "expectedReviewSpending": 25640000, "expectedTerminalCash": 41999999.99999999, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 17640000, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 35640000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 8400000 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "large_exit_liability", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 70000000, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 86923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": -70000000 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.5714285714285714, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": -70000000 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.07692307692307689, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.2, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -86923076.92307693 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": -20248350.022758335, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": -20248350.02275832, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": false, "continueProbability": 1, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.25, "successTypeRetention": 1, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0, "expectedReviewSpending": 80000000, "expectedTerminalCash": 75000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 90000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 60000000.00000001 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "authorization_closed", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": false }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 86923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.2, "continued": false, "stopReason": "authorization_closed", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": false, "stopReason": "authorization_closed", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "authorization_closed", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "authorization_closed", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": -10000000, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": -10000000, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": false, "continueProbability": 0, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0, "successTypeRetention": 0, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.25, "expectedReviewSpending": 0, "expectedTerminalCash": 0, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 10000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 0 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "authorization_unknown", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": null }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "incomplete_inputs", "unknownInputs": [ "continuationAuthorized" ], "summary": null, "signals": null, "branches": null }, { "id": "signal_accuracy_unknown", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": null, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "incomplete_inputs", "unknownInputs": [ "positiveGivenSuccess" ], "summary": null, "signals": null, "branches": null }, { "id": "funding_probability_unknown", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "later_raise", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": null, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 0.7, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "incomplete_funding_probabilities", "unknownInputs": [ "state-conditional future funding" ], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 0, "reserveDeposit": 0, "initialContribution": 10000000, "externalCallIfContinue": 80000000, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 } }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 } } ], "summary": null, "branches": null }, { "id": "funding_offer_reassessment", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "later_raise", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 0.1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 0, "reserveDeposit": 0, "initialContribution": 10000000, "externalCallIfContinue": 80000000, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.35000000000000003, "goodMass": 0.2, "otherMass": 0.15000000000000002, "posteriorSuccess": 0.5714285714285714, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 78495350.8030431, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 0.48571428571428577, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 0.11764705882352941, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.6500000000000001, "goodMass": 0.04999999999999999, "otherMass": 0.6000000000000001, "posteriorSuccess": 0.07692307692307689, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -58664087.39189805, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.020000000000000004, "continued": false, "stopReason": "reassessment_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "failed", "probability": 0.18000000000000002, "continued": false, "stopReason": "funding_failed", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "continued": false, "stopReason": "reassessment_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.6000000000000001, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 10000000, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": -10000000.000000002, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": -10000000, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": false, "continueProbability": 0, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0, "successTypeRetention": 0, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0.25, "expectedReviewSpending": 0, "expectedTerminalCash": 0, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 10000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 0 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." }, { "id": "exit_cost_unknown", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": null, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 0.8, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0.2, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "incomplete_inputs", "unknownInputs": [ "exitCost" ], "summary": null, "signals": null, "branches": null }, { "id": "perfect_signal_benchmark", "inputs": { "evidenceClass": "hypothetical", "unit": "USD", "seedCost": 10000000, "scaleCost": 80000000, "exitCost": 0, "payoffOnSuccess": 300000000, "payoffOtherwise": 0, "priorSuccess": 0.25, "positiveGivenSuccess": 1, "positiveGivenOtherwise": 0, "reviewYear": 1, "terminalYear": 3, "timeValueRate": 0.04, "reserveYield": 0.04, "fundingMode": "prefunded", "fundingReadyGivenSuccess": 1, "fundingReadyGivenOtherwise": 1, "arrangementFee": 0, "decisionPolicy": "staged", "reassessWhenFundingReady": true, "continuationAuthorized": true }, "issuerCalibrated": false, "conditionalOnInitialResearchSpend": true, "status": "hypothetical_complete_tree", "unknownInputs": [], "capitalBudget": { "reserveAtReview": 80000000, "reserveDeposit": 76923076.92307693, "initialContribution": 86923076.92307693, "externalCallIfContinue": 0, "reserveCarryPV": 0 }, "signals": [ { "signal": "positive", "probability": 0.25, "goodMass": 0.25, "otherMass": 0, "posteriorSuccess": 1, "initialApproval": true, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": 197366863.9053254, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": 1, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": 1, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": true }, { "signal": "negative", "probability": 0.75, "goodMass": 0, "otherMass": 0.75, "posteriorSuccess": 0, "initialApproval": false, "values": { "continueValueAtReview": -80000000, "stopValueAtReview": 0 }, "fundingReadyProbabilityIfInitiallyApproved": null, "posteriorSuccessWhenFundingReady": null, "finalApprovalWhenFundingReady": false } ], "branches": [ { "latentType": "success_type", "signal": "positive", "fundingState": "ready", "probability": 0.25, "continued": true, "stopReason": null, "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 80000000, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 0, "terminalCashDistribution": 300000000, "planningNPV": 179775830.6781975 }, { "latentType": "other_type", "signal": "negative", "fundingState": "not_requested", "probability": 0.75, "continued": false, "stopReason": "initial_policy_stop", "initialCapitalContributed": 86923076.92307693, "capitalCalledAtReview": 0, "reviewSpending": 0, "reserveReleasedAtReview": 80000000, "terminalCashDistribution": 0, "planningNPV": -10000000 } ], "summary": { "planningNPV": 37443957.669549376, "operatingPVBeforeReserveCarry": 37443957.669549376, "positiveFinancialPlanningCaseConditionalOnAssumptions": true, "continueProbability": 0.25, "fundedSuccessProbability": 0.25, "successTypeRetention": 1, "successTypeStoppedProbability": 0, "expectedReviewSpending": 20000000, "expectedTerminalCash": 75000000, "expectedCapitalCalledAtReview": 0, "expectedReserveReleasedAtReview": 60000000, "expectedNominalProgramSpending": 30000000, "expectedNonpayoffBranchScaleSpending": 0 }, "scope": "Discounted expected project-capital cash under a common time-value benchmark, not a risk-adjusted issuer or share valuation. Reserve principal is an asset until spent or released. Calls are capital contributions, not debt. Fees are external cash costs. No unmodeled liquidation, debt covenants, dilution, social spillover value or legal rights are supplied." } ], "thresholds": { "positiveSignalProbability": 0.35000000000000003, "continuationPosteriorThreshold": 0.2884266666666667, "equalReadinessBreakEvenAgainstProtectedReserve": 0.8485806590566443, "maximumCommitmentFeeAt95ReadinessAgainstProtectedReserve": 2679164.770141104, "additionalPresentCostOfOnePercentReserveYield": 2284843.8690022826, "limits": "Closed forms for the baseline zero-exit-cost, positive-signal-only policy with the same readiness in both latent types; not universal funding probabilities or offered fees." } }