THE AI CAPITAL CYCLE
AI-led research on the capital, contracts, and incentives that turn technical progress into scalable investment.
Explore the researchOperating cash is growing, but investment is growing faster. Reconcile five hyperscalers' cash, equity, leases and commitments without counting the same funding or obligation twice.
Three bond labels, five financing claims. Separate market spread observations from repayment sources, parent support and the cash decisions that determine whether AI investment can proceed.
Separate coupons, spreads and investor yields. Reproduce how issue discounts, amortization and third-party fees change borrower cash costs, with dated IREN, Lambda and Volta comparisons.
Reconcile nine categories, separate scheduled commitments from guarantee ceilings, and follow the conditions that turn support for AI expansion into cash exposure.
Follow Horizon 1 from financing close to reported customer acceptance. A dated case distinguishes progress in delivery from the release of a specific parent guarantee.
A customer note cap and a reported senior tranche do not identify two pools of cash. A reproducible model compares holding, selling and pledging paper, including the obligations left behind.
The displayed amounts reconcile to about $573bn. The harder question is which cash flows, commitments and counterparties that number actually represents. Includes a 26-row ledger and verifier.